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Inflation

What Does a Savings Account Pay After Inflation? the return no bank quotes

In this chapter
  1. The account is doing what it says and losing you money
  2. What the gap costs on an ordinary balance
  3. Why this is a fleece rather than a bad deal
  4. Why balances stay put anyway
  5. What to do about it
  6. The short version

The account is doing what it says and losing you money

A savings account paying 0.4% a year, while prices rise 3%, returns about −2.6% a year in what the balance buys.3

The statement shows a number that grows every month. The account is insured, the interest is real, and the disclosure is accurate. The holder is still getting poorer at a steady, knowable rate, and no document in the relationship states it.

What the gap costs on an ordinary balance

Take $20,000 held for five years.1

Nominal balance after 5 yrsIn today's money
At 0.4%$20,403$17,600
At 4.0%$24,333$20,988

Both accounts are federally insured to the same limit.2 Both are cash, available on demand or close to it. The difference over five years is about $3,400 in purchasing power — and it comes from where the money sat, rather than from any risk taken.

The first account loses ground against prices. The second stays slightly ahead. The gap between them is the part that was avoidable.

Why this is a fleece rather than a bad deal

Money Words, Defined: the 370 terms that decide what you pay defines a fleece as a disproportionate and avoidable cost you incur, directly or indirectly, often because some of the cost is not visible upfront.

This qualifies on every count.

Disproportionate — the loss runs for as long as the money sits, with no cap and no event to trigger a review.

Avoidable — an account paying several times more, at the same insured status and similar access, is a transfer away. Nothing about the household's risk changes.

Concealed by which number gets shown — APY is a required disclosure and appears on every statement. Real return is required nowhere and appears on none. Both numbers describe the same account, and the flattering one is the one the rules mandate.

No statement in the disclosure is false. The figure that would change the decision is absent, and its absence is lawful.

Why balances stay put anyway

The number never goes down. A balance that rises every month reads as safety. Loss through inflation has no transaction, no line item and no date, so nothing in the account's own record ever shows it happening.

The comparison is work. Moving money means opening an account, moving a direct deposit, and re-pointing autopay. The gain is invisible and the effort is immediate.

The rate moved quietly. Deposit rates are usually adjusted without notice. An account opened when it was competitive can stop being competitive with nothing arriving to say so.

Cash Sitting Idle? you are paying yourself a fee covers the same erosion on money sitting in a checking account, where the rate is often zero.

What to do about it

Work out your own real rate. Take the APY on the statement, subtract the current inflation rate, and read the sign. A negative sign means the balance is shrinking in purchasing power regardless of what the number does.

Separate the money by job. Cash for a known date and cash for an unknown one have different homes. When Lending Beats Borrowing: HYSA, T-bills and money markets in plain language covers high-yield accounts, certificates and Treasury bills; $14,000 Sitting Underemployed in Checking: where each dollar belongs covers how much belongs in each.

Keep the buffer, and stop apologizing for it. An emergency fund earning slightly below inflation is still doing its job — see The First $1,000 Does the Most Work: how much buffer you actually need. The waste is a large balance sitting at a near-zero rate for years because nobody looked.

Recheck the rate once a year. Deposit rates move and yours can drift without notice.

The short version

A savings account paying 0.4% while prices rise 3% loses about 2.6% a year in purchasing power, and every statement it sends shows a larger number than the last. On $20,000 over five years, the gap between a near-zero rate and a competitive one is around $3,400 in what the money buys, at the same insured status and the same risk. APY is a required disclosure; real return is required nowhere. Subtract inflation from the rate on your statement and read the sign.

Also in these situations
  1. Inflation0.4% against 3% is minus 2.6% a year, disclosed nowhere.
Sources
  1. The FDIC publishes national average deposit rates, which for savings accounts have persistently sat far below the yields available on high-yield savings accounts, money market funds and short-dated Treasury bills. Rates on all of these move; check current figures before acting on the comparison.
  2. Deposit insurance applies per depositor, per insured bank, per ownership category, and applies equally to a low-paying and a high-paying insured account. The comparison in this chapter holds the insured status constant.
  3. The 0.4%, 4.0% and 3% figures are round numbers chosen so the arithmetic is legible. They are not current readings. ---

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